Sabio Column

By James H. Choi
http://Column.SabioAcademy.com
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When we read about education, we come across many statistics. However, we can rarely take them at face value. For example, if a college has a 10% acceptance rate, that would suggest that 9 out of 10 students must reapply the following year—but have you ever actually seen that happen? In reality, because each student applies to multiple colleges, their overall chances of getting accepted somewhere are much higher. The true acceptance rate is much closer to 100%, but no one tells you that.

To get to the truth behind these education statistics, we need to understand statistics. There’s an American proverb that says, “There are lies in the world, and then there are damned lies, and then there are statistics.” Statistics are based on the intent of the person who wrote them. Statistics can be morphed into an infinite number of things depending on the intent of the person quoting them. For example, a statistic might conclude that “single people eat more candy than married people” because it counts “kids” as “single”. It’s ridiculous, but kids are technically single. You can only blame yourself for being fooled, so as the saying goes, when you see a “statistic,” you should consider it a “sophisticated lie,” and check it out before you believe it.

Even if you’re armed with entirely true facts, some statistics can still be misleading and work against you. For example, if you’re recommending a risky surgery with a 20% failure rate, framing it as an “80% success rate” can significantly influence the patient’s decision. Similarly, a high school where 490 out of 500 graduates fail to get into a top-tier university may seem like a poor-performing school with a 98% failure rate. However, it can still attract parents by highlighting its achievement of sending “10 students to Ivy League schools every year!” In Korea, there are currently discussions about schools and institutions trying to regulate banners that proclaim, “XX student got into YY university.” I propose a system where institutions must either publish all students’ results, remain silent, or do both. This approach would uphold free speech while encouraging voluntary restraint. After all, no school or institution would dare to publish a list of rejected students stretching to the horizon just to celebrate a handful of successful ones.

A statistic is a number used to represent a complex whole in a simple number. So a statistic of 90% success only makes sense when looking at the whole from above, but for each individual participant, there are only 100% and 0% outcomes, no in-betweens. Since education involves students from different backgrounds and with different levels of preparation, every outcome is dependent on which students participated. Therefore, statistics related to education should be viewed as Bayesian Probability. Bayesian Probability is simply the concept of “yes”. It’s about whether this statistic is true for me. In education, for example, just because the math team at Q High School wins championships year after year doesn’t mean you’ll be good at math if you go there, because if all of the members of the math team at Q High School are international students from Korea (a real-life example of a prestigious boarding school in the East), the math reputation of the school is not “true” for other students because the finished product was imported, not taught at the school. In another example, many parents decide to send their child to High School A based on the statistic “more graduates of High School A are accepted to University H”, but before accepting this statistic, they need to determine whether it is true for all students at High School Q, or only for students at High School Q whose grandfather’s name is on the campus of University H. To make a sound decision, they need to determine whether the statistic is true for all students at High School Q, or only for students at High School Q whose grandfather’s name is on the campus of University H. Then they can use Bayesian Probability.

So, how do you use Bayesian Probability to create an educational strategy? While gathering official information, you must also seek the experience of someone who is similar to you, i.e., a mentor who can give you the backstory, the inside scoop, and the experience. The more similar this mentor’s personality/conditions/goals are to yours, the more likely it is that all the fuzzy probabilities of your path will become clear and sharp, and you’ll be able to make an informed judgment. If you’re a unique student and you can’t find a senior to look up to, another option is to seek advice from a professional who has experience guiding similar students, especially if they’ve been there, done that, and know “it”. This mentor’s advice, combined with the official information on the school’s website, will help you see the road ahead clearly, and you’ll be able to formulate the most ambitious and most solid strategy.